Will Scotland finally break the All Blacks hoodoo?

Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.